Westminster just suffered a ‘glitch in the Matrix’.
Mercifully it wasn’t the Chinese or Russians up to tricks – indeed it’s a Westminster quirk all of its own – but rarely do all parties experience it simultaneously.
By way of explanation, I refer readers to my bathroom extractor fan.
I know, there’s left-field for you.
Bear with me as this invaluable domestic appliance really does explain things. Most of the time, without too much fuss or dazzle, it quietly gets on with doing what it’s supposed to and extracts excess steam and moisture from inside to outside. Day by day I can’t say I really think about it.
However just occasionally it inserts itself into family life in such a way that it cannot be ignored.
Its spin rotation is slightly off, a bearing is worn, or is fractionally restricted by some obstacle. It whines and grumbles in a way difficult to ignore and either needs a quick tap on the side or a ‘swift talking to’ with a vacuum cleaner. It then dutifully pipes down and gets back on with its job.
The past week saw the parties experienced something similar. They all seemed to have a bit of a post recess spasm before, they’ll hope, coming to their senses.
The background is a number of parties of a different nature. As the Thais say; “same same but different”. I attended two ‘farewells’ to doyens of the Westminster media crowd, leaving long held jobs to go on to new ones. The day after those the Carlton Club, the ‘heart of Torydom on earth’ had its summer party.
The ‘bubble’ collectively was very post-recess and in ‘so what next?’ mood.
Tim Shipman formerly scoop stalwart of the Sunday Times, and Jo Coburn legendary interrogator for the BBC both had celebrations of their careers to date before Tim heads to the Spectator and Jo to be heard from time to time on Times Radio. Impressive young gun Jack Elsom who was just announced as Sun Political Editor, was just one of many bubble regulars who spent two evenings gossiping with each other about the state of things generally.
There were also Labour Spads and ministers, former Tory Ministers and MPs. Plenty of media from left and right and all points in between were in attendance and whilst these people are not – by a long chalk – the only good sources of what things are really like, it’s unwise to dismiss them and besides they were sounding awfully like my bathroom extractor fan – it was a mix of hot air but in the midst of it all a distinctive whine that things aren’t ‘working right’.
It was like getting a group school report for ‘Westminster class of 2025’ and clichéd though it is the verdict was a loud ‘could do better’ on all their Houses, Commons and Lords.
The slightly blended and repetitive critique went something like this – and please don’t shoot the messenger:
Labour are building an unwelcome reputation for not telling the truth, refusing to see that, and still struggling to get a grip on being the Government. They did get a tricky inheritance but not as they describe it and they cling too much to it to defend their own actions. Some of the things they did early on they are really regretting (Chagos being one) but are too invested now to stop. However nobody expected them ‘to be this shit, this quick’ – I quote one of their own. The rest of their own, owned up to the fact Government is much harder than they had imagined. I smiled wryly.
Every non-Tory asked when Kemi will be replaced – as if it had been publicly announced!
Some Tories chimed in to explain they feared she was nowhere to be seen and nobody was listening anyway. Apparently, those who never wanted her are trying to explore how you replace a leader without having a leadership contest and whilst simultaneously not get run over for trying – a game of ‘coronation chicken’, if you like.
Any action or comment from the Tory side seems to be instantly require from ‘fleet street’ the headline ‘in a challenge to her leadership….’
One former Tory MP – never a great fan of Kemi and wisely claiming they’d heard it elsewhere – said:
“She’s doing an impossible job…. but badly”
Reform, especially some of their younger senior lieutenants started the week with a not-altogether-helpful swagger in their steps, born seemingly from having been around in the days when it wasn’t working. Now it is, they exude a hubristic, ‘we told you so but you dismissed us. No-one but us is laughing now’. The swagger of course had a 48 hour wobble when Chairman Zia was Yusoff ….and then Yuson again, though now he’s Doge not Chairman.
That was the chat, anyway.
Now I know this gossip melange, I’ve had to swim in it – or against it – for years and you learn to find the real intel amongst a sludge of reprocessed ideas and half heard or even misheard comments. It is both useful and useless. Useful in that when it hits a certain collective pitch, you can tell something’s up.
So what is worth picking out?
The scrabble for Labour to find a narrative is real. There is one, I don’t agree with it, but Labour Comms seem to have allowed it to fly completely over their heads. Or more cynically think – ‘yes you can take the public for fools’.
The Spending Review will give us clues as to who the winners and losers will be in the Cabinet’s internal battles. Starmer remains, and one suspects always will, curiously wooden and emotionless, and yet so easily bruised and hurt by things said about him.
That weakness can be exploited – and they know it.
Badenoch won’t like the fact that people keep talking of ‘after Kemi’ even if many add, ‘it would have been the same with any of the others’ but her MPs keep one eye on the polls and their majorities and worry. It was ever thus. Either as a result of this idea she isn’t saying anything – or proving when she does some just want to pretend she hasn’t – she ended the week with a major speech and a big Sunday interview all of which followed a major speech by the shadow Chancellor Mel Stride midweek. The call for more direction seems to have landed.
Nigel Farage may have, as Conservative Home’s Deputy Editor Henry Hill observed in the Telegraph, learned that losing a handful of close colleagues, may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose more looks like carelessness. That he and Zia, and Sarah, and Lee have made up behind the veil of private meetings might be a sign that the man accused of being a one man band, knows in the end he needs an orchestra.
This morning Labour will be prepping it’s pitch rolling exercise around this week’s big event, the Spending Review. The Conservative Leadership will want people focussed on the direction Badenoch and Stride just articulated, Jenrick has no intention of stopping his video assault on ministers, and some of the newer MPs, if you care to look are starting to land opposition blows – investing early in Lam, Kruger and Timothy might sound like spending a few quid on a city law firm, but it’s a good side bet.
As I suggested KBO is the only option whilst acknowledging there’s no guarantees.
As for Reform UK, I doubt their end of week drama will knock them too much in the polls, but it may just reinforce – as their recent Lowe point did – that there are inherent risks for any tempted to be that ‘big defection’ they’re after. Who wants to stand shoulder to shoulder when that shoulder can turn so cold, so quick. This time Nigel seems to have learned.
Maybe the message to all that should hang in the air in Westminster today is- ‘you’ve tried to settle the wobbles of last week, now this week, get over yourselves, there’s work to be done’
