David Campbell Bannerman is Chairman of the Conservative Democratic Organisation and The Freedom Association
I know Ukraine, have visited Kyiv and Crimea and collect its art.
Ukraine has been in a tug of war between Russia and the West. However, I believe the EU was chiefly to blame for the degeneration into war, as happened with its Yugoslavian intervention. Essentially, it did the right thing in the wrong way. It was the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement that dangerously raised the temperature between Russia and Ukraine.
Let me be clear though, this is not excusing Putin’s decision to invade.
The EU’s push not just for trade, but security and defence cooperation, including Ukraine joining the European Defence Agency, was the red rag to Moscow. This led directly to a constitutional crisis with the parliament (Verkhovna Rada) backing EU defence alignment, and President Yanukovych refusing to sign the agreement (under threat of Russian tariffs).
President Yanukovych was then deposed under the Maidan revolt, also known as the ‘Revolution of Dignity’, with him fleeing the country the night before Parliament voted to remove him. Then there was a return to the 2004 Constitution with Parliament in power. The [Euro]Maidan may be celebrated, but it led directly to Ukraine being invaded – starting with low-key warfare commencing in 2014 to the East, in Donetsk, before the Russian annexation of Crimea.
In 2010, I warned the European Parliament that “any talk of Ukraine joining NATO would be a sharp kick to the Russian Bear… Better to help in other ways and keep Ukraine as a proud, independent, non-EU nation.”
This was an example of the EU and Western diplomacy having noble ends, but with the subtlety of hob-nailed boots in a minefield.
Then in February 2022 Russia stunned the world by doing the unthinkable – a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine. An unwarranted action, but still a tragically predictable consequence of mishandling Russia.
I have always been pro-Ukraine. There is no doubt of the bravery, courage and determination of Ukrainian people – they have confirmed their nationhood and deserve a fine European future and independence.
But I am appalled at the false certainties applied by those intent on keeping Ukraine fighting so the EU can step up and look powerful. Too much ill-informed bellicose talk of Chamberlain-style ‘appeasement’. Some has been from British military, when the sad reality is we don’t have a British army, just two corps (70,000), and can’t raise a peace force let alone a fighting force.
I will never be an appeaser but I’m a Bismarckian pragmatist too. The reality is that Ukraine has won to date: it stopped Putin taking Kyiv; it has imposed a shocking price on the Russians with 100,000s of lost lives, hit their economy; retaken lost territories and even Russian land.
Yet a peace deal is critical and possible. Peace negotiations started almost immediately after the invasion: Russian and Ukrainian officials met in Belarus four days after the invasion, on 28 February 2022. Now Zelensky is meeting Putin in Istanbul.
I know senior people in Ukraine are prepared to compromise. People who saw missiles hit; and are not appeasers. A deal such as:
- Ukraine recognised as a free sovereign nation state. This would be a big win for Ukraine and hardest thing for Putin to accept; this will need security guarantees;
- Sanctions against Russia to be eased – they are hurting;
- Russia to formally retain Crimea – Catherine the Great’s Crimea was only transferred between Soviet oblasts for political reasons;
- Occupied areas in Eastern Ukraine to remain sovereign Ukrainian but subject to de facto Russian control. The Greek Cypriots have not renounced their sovereign claim to Northern Cyprus despite de facto Turkish control since their 1974 invasion; the UN considers it territory under Turkish occupation and patrols the Green Line;
- Putin won’t last forever – he has already fully extended his term and is reportedly obsessed with films of Gaddafi being executed by his people. When Putin goes, his personal dream for a return to the Soviet Union or Kievan Rus goes with him. Crucially, the return of his soldiers from the front after a deal may expose Putin’s folly to the Russian people for the first time. Remember 1917;
- A mineral deal with Ukraine, now signed. This looks neo-colonialist, with Trump in a geopolitical resources chess game with China. But, having Americans on the ground in Ukraine will keep the USA bound in;
- What else? Kursk, invaded in part by Ukraine, will be returned to Russia. This was clearly a negotiating card;
- Ukraine might join the EU if it wishes, but not NATO;
- Some form of ‘Marshall Plan’ to rebuild Ukraine; and paid from levies on Russian gas/oil or interest on frozen assets. No doubt the EU will offer financial assistance.
Ok, Trump certainly doesn’t do French-style diplomatic waltzes. He’s a New York Property Dealer/Apprentice TV star that’s always dealmaking. It might be brutal at times – I winced too at Zelensky’s treatment in the White House – but his abrasive approach has been effective.
So, I believe we must play the long game, make a peace deal when Ukraine is ahead, and when President Trump is focusing on delivering a deal. Who else can force Putin to the table? Trump’s unpredictability is an asset as it keeps foes and friends alike off balance.
We must give Trump space, give him the benefit of the doubt, study his adviser Kellogg’s clever strategy, and cut out nasty anti-American snobbish comments. It may not work; in which case the war will continue, and many more lives will be wasted.
What is the alternative to a Trump peace deal? That Europe proves how important it is in the world, to complete its Superstate dream, like an insecure Napoleon, by sending thousands of European troops to drive out the Russians? To trust slippery Macron, or unelected EU President Ursula Von Der Leyen, who reduced the German Army to carrying broomsticks as Defence Minister. They were missing in action when Russia invaded; but now want to be warmongers?
If the EU does splurge Euros 800 billion on defence, it will go bust. The European Central Bank (ECB) already has negative capital and can’t support the Euro.
Even if doable, they would just continue the stalemate and meat grinder attrition; and what would a wounded Putin do next? We didn’t believe he’d invade Ukraine. Do we also believe he wouldn’t sanction a nuclear strike?
If this war continues, Ukraine might not just be worn down. Despite the spectacular recent attacks on Russian aircraft its resistance might in the longer term, collapse altogether – it ‘doesn’t have the cards’ and is on the backfoot – with its military Intelligence chief reported as saying they may not last a year.
Yes, Putin was wrong and foolish to invade, but the EU-led handling of the Russian bear was criminally belligerent. We are in a bad place, but an honourable peace deal is possible – even if only a holding Cold War-style peace.
In the words of John Lennon, “give peace a chance”.
