Kevin Foster was the MP for Torbay between 2015 and 2024 and is a former Deputy Leader of Coventry City Council.
The recent local election results were not just poor, they were awful.
They are a flashing warning sign of a fed-up electorate looking for someone who can offer them hope – even if we can see it as a false hope based on impossible promises.
We either win or learn from election campaigns. May 1st shows we have a lot of learning to do – and it’s not just about leadership.
Air War
We cannot win a ground war in local councils whilst decisively losing the air war in the national media; yet in May we were on the back foot from the off.
A party confident in its beliefs, and with a wish to serve in Government again, should not fear the voters. We should relish every opportunity to take our message to them and fight to win. Yet that is not how it appeared with our party’s confused and disjointed response to the Labour Government decision to delay elections. Conservative Council Leaders, faced with just days over Christmas to make their decision and give their response, were not given a clear steer. We ended up with Conservative MPs speaking against, whilst Conservative councillors voted in favour of delaying their local Council’s election. Some, such as Devon, voted to delay elections despite there being little prospect of this happening in their area.
There are merits to local government reform, but the next time Labour looks to delay democracy, every Conservative from the Town Hall to Westminster should oppose them.
Inspiration
Our overall strategy for the county elections, if one existed, was poor and ill-judged, messages bland and uninspiring.
The national party often sounded more like local council leadership in talking about how these elections were “not an opinion poll” and about local services. Where were the efforts to galvanise voters into turning out to back our campaigns on a national rape grooming gangs inquiry or to send Keir a message he could not ignore about his Winter Fuel Betrayal?
Our national media operation devoted lots of effort and resource to talking about bins in Birmingham, despite no elections being held there. Meanwhile Birmingham Conservatives schooled CCHQ in how to get acres of free online and broadcast media coverage: send someone dressed up as a giant rat to troll the Labour Council with a public question.
Local issues are most effectively raised by local leaders; our national party instead needs to focus on giving clear messages on why voters should vote Conservative at every opportunity.
Why Conservative?
Voters deserve a clear message about why having a Conservative Council makes a difference, when asked to vote for one.
If Council Tax goes up by the maximum 4.99 per cent each year, and residents don’t see better services (potholes), and their Council appears more focussed on climate messaging than local concerns, what difference does being Conservative controlled make?
Showing Conservative delivery is harder with a County Council where money is sucked into Adult and Children’s Social Care, whilst visible public services like street cleaning sit with the Districts. Yet this split will soon be no more. Large new Unitary Councils will be a big opportunity to set out and show the difference a Conservative Council will make. Every Conservative Group should discuss: What is the difference being CONSERVATIVE makes, or would make, to this Council? It’s the discussion which could win many Councillors’ seats.
Targeting
An effective air war is vital, but an organised ground campaign rams home the advantage.
It’s clear our opponents, especially the Lib Dems, have a better system to profile potential gains or losses. Yet even with better targeting data our party structure is not set up to win power locally.
Our opponents select target seats based on winning the Council, yet in too many places we fight an individual campaign in each constituency. This produces bizarre results within the same council: some target seats are well resourced, whilst others are abandoned and see decisions made by an association which is not focused on the goal of winning the election.
Back in May 2023 Torbay Conservatives bucked the trend and gained control of Torbay Council. The Conservative Group, led by Cllr Dave Thomas, listened to residents, set out clear local pledges in response, highlighted the failures of the Lib DemIndependent Coalition administration, made clear the difference a Conservative Council would make and campaigned hard across the council area to win. Targeting was based on which seats would give us control, not which constituency they were in.
Conservatives winning the new Unitary Councils will be vital to ensure they head in the right direction to serve residents, not have a left-wing coalition letting them down. We therefore need to fight these elections as we hope to govern, as one council wide team.
Future
There were bright spots in our campaign, not least a Party Co-Chairman who puts everything into his role and will happily join young activists to pound the pavements in the pouring rain.
Yet there were also lows, like the childish name-calling and rows in Lincolnshire with Andrea Jenkyns which simply alienated voters even more.
We will govern again locally and nationally, but only if lessons are learned.
