Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com
My latest focus groups brought together longstanding Labour voters in Leeds and Bradford, defectors from the Conservatives in Rushcliffe, and Tory-Reform switchers in Wellingborough. Topics included the likely winter fuel and benefits U-turns, Keir Starmer’s new immigration stance, the Reform surge in the local elections and the state of the opposition.
The impending reversal on the Winter Fuel Allowance was mentioned spontaneously by all the groups.
The PM’s explanation that moving the threshold was now affordable because the economy was improving simply provoked laughter (“How have we gone from ‘there’s a £22 billion black hole’ to ‘things are improving’?”) Many who opposed the original policy gave him no credit for restoring the allowance for more pensioners because “he shouldn’t have took it in the first place.”
Most took it as read that the move was political: “There was such a backlash. He’s just trying to win favour, isn’t he? He’s trying to stay in people’s good books and not piss people off.”
If that was standard practice for a politician, it also underlined two broader complaints – that the government was weak and had no plan: “They can’t stick to a decision. They’ll do something, sort of seeing what happens, and if the waters become choppy, they say ‘we’ve made a bad decision here, let’s mellow it back out again and see how it plays out. He’s not the right person to make the tough decisions, to make the right change for the future;” “There’s no thought and no strategic plan. It’s like a tombola of ideas. They just chuck it out and see what works. And then they say, ‘oh, that didn’t work, we’ll do a U-turn and say we’re listening and that will be great PR’;” “He made himself look bad doing it, but he’s made himself look even worse going back on it.”
“You’ve kind of gotta sniff a bit of desperation”
The policy reversal also annoyed those who had supported the decision to means test the allowance, on the grounds that many pensioners needed no financial help: “I’m cabin crew and I have people on my flights saying ‘our heating money’s paid for this holiday’;” “The baby boomer generation have got massive big fat pensions, big payoffs when they got made redundant and they retired at 60;” “People at my church were complaining when it was cut saying ‘that bought all the Christmas presents for my grandkids’.” Some also wondered how the new commitment would be paid for: “Where are they going to get the money from? Are they going to borrow it, or put our taxes up again?”
Committed Labour voters were the most likely to give him any credit: “It shows he’s listening to the country;” “I actually admire the fact that if you make a mistake and it’s not landing, you own it and do something about it.” However, even these people tended to believe the shift was tactical rather than principled: “How Reform did in the local elections was probably the driving factor;” “You’ve kind of gotta sniff a bit of desperation.”
“All the extra children I had, I’ve paid for”
Many were also aware of the debate over scrapping the two-child benefit cap.
Most of our participants agreed with the existing policy on the grounds that it can’t be right that “the more children you have, the more benefits you get;” that people are “popping out kids to get benefits and houses” and – most powerfully of all – “if you can’t afford kids, don’t have them. I’ve got six children and I agree with the cap, because all the extra children I had, I’ve paid for.” This was especially true among Reform voters and those who had switched to Labour from the Conservatives, some of whom complained that while they struggled to pay the bills on their wages, the people they knew who did not work seemed to live better than they did.
Several had also noted that Nigel Farage backed removing the two-child cap. For Reform voters, this did not change their minds either about the policy or about the party – either because they still preferred Reform’s overall approach, or they saw it as a tactical means to the greater end of beating Labour: “That’s the only thing about Reform where I’ve thought, oh, really? But Reform’s other policies sort of outweigh it;” “You’re never going to agree with all the policies. There’s never any political party where you go, oh my God, they’re amazing;” “They want to eat Labour’s lunch. If they can get Labour out by being clever, take the red wall seats, then great, I don’t really care. Just as long as I get this lot out.”
Labour’s new immigration policies and Keir Starmer’s “island of strangers” speech had also caught the attention of all our groups. There was some agreement that numbers were too high and that entry requirements should be tightened. However, there were concerns about employers being able to recruit, especially in the care sector and the NHS: “I run a home care company. When we recruit, of the 50 applications we get, we might pull two or three for interview. The only way we can recruit is to recruit overseas people on a sponsorship. And that route is going to be completely dried up now as well. So with national insurance, the minimum wage and everything, smaller companies are not going to be able to survive;” “All the bone-idle Brits are lazy. They don’t want to wipe other people’s asses for the minimum wage like I have to.”
“He’s targeting the wrong group of people”
Whatever people’s views and political backgrounds, most agreed that the speech and the change in policy were – like the winter fuel reversal – purely political: “It was just a response to Nigel Farage and Reform gaining lots of seats. I think he was just a bit scared that Labour would get ousted, so he’s like, ‘I’ll just wax lyrical and say something about immigration’;” “If that was what you truly believe, it should have been on the table months ago;” “He knows it’s costing him votes. If he doesn’t do something right now, he’ll be slaughtered at the next election, quite literally;” “I don’t think it sounds sincere. Is it just words? ‘Read this out, there you go’.”
There was also a very widespread view, even among Reform voters, that new restrictions on legal immigration missed the point: “He’s targeting the wrong group of people. He’s basically targeting the people who want to come and work here. What we have a problem with is the boats and the illegal immigrants;” “Most legal migrants are very useful. They become doctors and nurses and even teachers. The real issue is illegal migrants, and there was no mention of that whatsoever;” “The problem we have is criminal arrivals. Coming over on a boat, being put up in a hotel, having all your benefits paid for is the drain we cannot afford.”
“When you’re quoting Enoch Powell, I draw a line at that”
If Reform voters and Conservative-Labour switchers were largely unimpressed by the new tone on immigration, some longstanding Labour voters were worried by what they saw as the attempt to win those people over: “He’s not striking a very good balance with speeches like that. He’s fuelling it, saying we’re a land of strangers. Keir Starmer can alienate a lot of people by going that way, because he’s creating a bigger divide. When you’re quoting Enoch Powell, I draw a line at that;” “He’s trying to steal votes from Reform but he’s doing it the wrong way. He’s going to lose people who are going to vote Labour because he’s going too far to the right;” “I think he’s just saying it because he thinks he has to, and that’s worse. He’s flaky. He just blows with the wind.” Some argued that the Starmer government had drifted further right than Tony Blair ever had: “I think Blair had conviction in what he said. They had policies and stood by them. Starmer, because you’re unsure where he actually is, as much as I want to like him and support him, he’s moving to the right to compete with the Tories and Reform.”
“It’s quite scary thinking that Reform is now Labour’s biggest competition. I feel like I don’t even want to admit that”
Both Labour and Reform voters tended to see Reform UK as Labour’s main rival, and in many cases the most likely alternative government. A few of our Labour voters thought Reform’s appeal would soon wane (“I think he’s just peaking. As soon as things calm down, he’s going to come down as well”) but there was a widespread view that the party would continue to grow and might well end up in government: “I think he’s building something, definitely. I’m not saying I’d vote for him, but Nigel is the only one who’s standing out and doing something;” “I think it’s quite scary thinking that Reform is now Labour’s biggest competition. I feel like I don’t even want to admit that because it’s scary knowing that is the reality.”
Many of our former Conservatives were as critical of Reform as the more habitual Labour voters we spoke to.
They often felt that the policies seemed ill-considered but that the underlying direction was sinister or dangerous: “I think they’re not just racist, they’re anti-gay. They’re removing LGBT flags from buildings;” “The U-turn on winter fuel and lifting the benefit cap, it doesn’t seem realistic or fair and they’re just doing it to win favour. And underneath I’ve got a really bad feeling about them, trying to get some really nasty policies through once they’re in power;” “You couldn’t name a cabinet, you couldn’t name six other people in the party that are credible. It’s just a one-man band;” “Farage was a big cheerleader for the Liz Truss budget. He doesn’t talk about that now. His economic policies are so hazy, you can’t pin him down to anything. And he’ll just deny it even if he said it.”
Its voters believed Reform was the only party that seemed to take them and their views and concerns seriously: “We’re now asking for help. We’re waving that flag saying ‘Help! I’ve got a vote, but it hasn’t done any good’. It’s dying man syndrome. I grabbed the nearest hand, and that’s Reform;” “The Conservatives like Labour are too busy trying to chase diversity votes. I’ve got a same-sex partner and I don’t give a shit about any of that. You’re either good enough to do something or you’re not. I don’t need to tick a box for diversity, and Reform don’t care about any of that;” “They speak to us like human beings. Sometimes I feel we’re just minions of this country, feeding money into the system. We can’t get hospital treatments or doctors’ appointments, dentists. No-one cares about us. And now we feel like we’ve got someone that might actually care.”
They also believed Reform were increasingly serious, influencing the direction of national politics and – having won ten county councils – putting themselves in a position where they could challenge for power at a national level: “Reform have said things a lot of other parties wouldn’t say, and that means Labour and the Conservatives have had to change tack and start having difficult conversations. Without that, I think they would have ignored it;” “I am watching intently how they do in Nottinghamshire. If they can prove they can manage a county council of that size, they’ve got every chance of getting in at the next election.”
“Reform could make a total shambles of it all. But I think they’re more focused on the country”
Reform voters accepted that the party’s policies were in some cases incomplete or unrealistic, but this was not enough to put them off – the established parties had let them down and they wanted to go in a different direction: “I’m not convinced that some of their policies they’ll be able to do logistically. But I feel like the country’s falling apart. We need to do some radical changes;” “Has Labour fulfilled everything? Look at their manifesto promises and every one they’ve not kept;” “I wouldn’t say they’ve got a massive manifesto, because they haven’t. And some of the things they’ve spoken about I’m not totally with. But if they can get to a point where people are saying, OK, this is not a wasted vote, like this year, they’re becoming a viable party;” “Reform could make a total shambles of it all. But I think they’re more focused on the country. Nobody else seems to be doing a proper job at the minute.”
For some, there was something liberating about breaking away from the established order: “You’re brought up to be Labour or Conservative and we’ve been blinkered into thinking that’s how we’ve got to conform. Now we’ve got this other one coming up and it’s almost like all of a sudden, we’re free. And we’re like, I quite like you, but I’m not sure. It’s like we’re breaking a massive rule by doing this and it feels quite naughty.”
Voters of all backgrounds agreed that the Conservative Party had not yet made much of an impact since the general election (“They’re reshuffling quietly, aren’t they?” “They’ve got the mute switch on”). However, our former Conservative voters who had seen Kemi Badenoch in action tended to have a positive view: “I like her. She’s a straight talker and she’d confident. I much prefer listening to her than Keir Starmer. She seems to be a strong, direct woman;” “I listen to question time and she’s quite dynamic. I think they’re on the road to recovery. Possibly;” “She’s better than Rishi Sunak. He was too wishy-washy but she’s quite a strong person;” “She stands up well considering she’s relatively young but she’s still a bit naïve for the role, and I’m not sure she’s accepted by all Conservatives;” I saw Naga Munchetty interviewing her and she usually goes for the throat, but Kemi put her in her place. I liked that. That’s what you need as PM.”
Some of our Tories were open to returning and hoped the party would make that possible: “Part of my vote was to shake the Conservative Party up, to scare them enough to get them back to serious business;” “They used to be small state, low taxes, freedom of expression and choice, but we don’t seem to hear any of that;” “I hope they’ll climb back because I want Reform to have a serious opponent. They just really need to think about what they need to do;” “Historically, I’ve always voted for them because I felt like they were always fair. Work hard, pay into the system, and that’s it. Those who need help will get help but it’s all about self-responsibility. You go out, you work, you earn, you pay your tax, and you do well.”
“Maybe a bit of consistency would do them good”
Whatever they thought of the Conservatives, few thought another change of leadership was the answer. Indeed, many felt that a succession of short-lived leaders had been part of the Tories’ problem: “I think her party behind her at the moment is still broken. She might be amazing but she hasn’t got a party around her;” “They’ve not had a great history with leaders;” “Whoever starts should finish that term. We’ve not had that since David Cameron. Since then it’s just been one after the other. I don’t even remember all their names;” “If they were to pull her out now, I’d be like ‘no, I’m done’. Every time you think it’s not working, rather than actually work hard at it, you’re so quick to get them out. So stick at it, work hard at it, and maybe you’ll gain my respect again.”
“He looks the part, but he’s not doing a lot about anything”
Finally, if Keir Starmer were a fictional character from a book, film or TV show, which fictional character would he be? “Mr Ben. Every time he comes out, he’s a different person and says different things;” “The one in Bridget Jones’s Diary that isn’t Mr Darcy. The one Hugh Grant plays, Daniel. He’s always saying slimy stuff and doing the complete opposite;” “Captain Underpants. He looks the part, he’s like the big bravado superhero, but he’s not doing a lot about anything;” “Billy Mitchell from Eastenders. Sort of an outside character but in a big family. He’s easily influenced and quite easy to manipulate;” “The guy from The 40Year-Old Virgin at the start – sort of nondescript, goes about his life, doesn’t really do anything;” “Pinocchio;” “Mr Tumble;” “Dobby the House Elf from Harry Potter;” “Gollum from Lord of the Rings. All he cares about is the ring – money and power.”
What about Kemi Badenoch? “She’s quite mysterious. We don’t know enough about her. Mystique from X-Men;” “Aunt Sally from Worzel Gummidge, complaining about everything;” “She’s sort of invisible. Harry Potter under a cloak. Or Casper.”
And Nigel Farage? “He’s like a sketch from Little Britain;” “Dr Evil from Austin Powers;” “Lord Voldemort;” “Slugworth from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. The guy who comes up and whispers in people’s ears and generally turns up when things go bad;” “Neville Longbottom from Harry Potter. The underdog that’s coming up to try and fix everything;” “The Wizard of Oz. The illusion. He does that fearmongering, but when they actually meet him there’s nothing to him;” “The Cybermen from Doctor Who. They want everyone to be like them, don’t they?”
