Luke Graham was the Conservative Member of Parliament for Ochil and Perthshire South from 2017 to 2019, the candidate in Perth and Kinross-shire in 2024, and a former head of the Downing Street Union Unit.
“The Tories had their chance; Labour are messing it up; maybe it’s time we gave someone else a go?” This response, from a politically neutral friend of mine at the pub two weeks ago, is beginning to resonate with an increasing portion of the electorate.
This weekend, similar sentiments emerged from former Labour, Conservative, and SNP voters during the Record’s vox pop in the Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse constituency, ahead of this week’s by-election.
At first glance, it may seem odd – why would voters who previously supported Labour or the SNP now consider voting for Reform UK? The answer lies in Nigel Farage’s announcement last week regarding the two-child benefit cap, where he unabashedly shifted Reform leftward on welfare policy, albeit with some questionable budgetary calculations.
Though the policy itself is significant – I recall the “rape clause” debate when the SNP weaponised the two-child cap in 2017 – the crucial moment came during a follow-up Q&A session. Farage revealed another one of his cards: “we have a shortage of British-born babies.” By “British-born,” Farage implies non-immigrant, predominantly white babies.
Besides the inherent contradiction of imposing an unlimited tax liability on working people to support their neighbours’ children – a deeply unconservative stance – it is noteworthy that child benefit alone does not demonstrably increase birth rates; cultural influences and broader tax policies are far more impactful.
Now nationalism is distinct from patriotism – a trait I imagine many reading this article would happily be associated. Nationalism is selective, divisive. Nationalism allows its proponents to define who is in and who is out of the club.
The SNP have used nationalism for years – they decide who is “Scottish enough” this could be defined by birthright, ethnicity or accent – regardless, it is the SNP who decide. And so the same is true of Reform UK: they will decide which are the “British-born babies” they are willing to make tax payers pay for rather than reforming the state and tax incentives to empower women and men to work and make childcare more affordable.
The SNP understands this dynamic. While only a small fraction of their voters migrated to Reform UK in the 2024 general election, polling and doorstep feedback clearly shows their more vulnerable position.
Despite John Swinney’s stabilisation of the SNP, they are increasingly blamed for Scotland’s underperforming public services, and Scottish voters are craving change. Unlike Wales, where Plaid Cymru remains untarnished by the burdens of government, the SNP’s 18 years in charge is starting to fatigue the party and electorate alike.
Moreover, the SNP’s electoral dominance has hinged upon successfully merging nationalist sentiment with a substantial portion of the centre-left, enabling them to secure nearly 50 per cent of the Scottish vote in 2015.
Reform now threatens this coalition. In many working-class communities, the SNP’s pro-immigration stance is unpopular. Combined with their underperformance in government and inability to achieve separation, their appeal has waned.
Consequently, Scotland now has two economically left-leaning nationalist parties competing for similar voter segments. The Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse will be the first test of the parties going head-to-head.
On the surface this seat should be a slam-dunk for the SNP; the party gained 46.2 per cent of the vote back in 2021 with Labour coming in second with 33.6 per cent. Labour’s general election surge should put Labour in poll-position, yet Reform UK are now widely talked about achieving second place.
Since the 2014 referendum, Scottish politics has been more volatile than the rest of the UK. Over the past decade it has been “normal” to see marginal constituencies flipping Labour/SNP/Conservative as the nationalist vs unionist fault lines continued to define daily politics. But with two nationalist parties on the pitch, an unpopular Labour party and our party still finding its feet, constituencies will start looking at 4-way splits, with the nationalist-vs-unionist rallying cry dampened by the cynicism of the electorate.
The SNP knows this. Despite their hammering in the 2024 general election, they are still one of the most effective political parties of the 21st Century, with the hands firmly on the devolved levers of power. This is why Swinney has targeted his media interventions on making the SNP the “stop Reform” choice. In addition, locals are starting to see the proliferation of the standard online anti-XYZ groups coming out with tactical voting sites to stop Reform.
This is genuinely a new battlefield for the SNP, who’s leader is used to facing Tories and coming round to tackling Labour, but now faces the Reform threat in the same way as the other establishment parties.
The 2026 Holyrood elections are 12 months away, but this by election will set the tone, tactics and strategy for much of the campaign. For a decade Scotland’s choice has been between a split unionist vote and a united nationalist front. From Thursday the odds may well be even.
